Key facts
- The U.S. will reopen a border crossing in Arizona to Mexican cattle on Monday.
- Economists doubt this move will significantly lower beef prices for consumers.
- The border was closed over a year ago due to screwworm concerns, exacerbating U.S. cattle shortages.
- The U.S. cattle herd is at a 75-year low, contributing to record beef prices.
- Beef prices have risen significantly faster than overall food prices in recent years.
The U.S. is set to reopen a border crossing in Arizona to cattle from Mexico on Monday, a move intended by the Trump administration to combat record-high beef prices. However, economists express doubt that this measure will significantly impact consumers at the grocery store.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture stated that concerns regarding the spread of the New World screwworm have diminished, allowing cattle imports to resume at the Douglas, Arizona crossing. The administration previously closed the border to livestock imports from Mexico over a year ago, citing screwworm containment, but this action exacerbated an existing shortage of cattle for slaughter in the U.S.
President Donald Trump also announced plans to allow up to 331,000 tons of ground beef to be imported tariff-free over the next 90 days, to be sold at below-market prices. Economists like Derrell Peel from Oklahoma State University noted that while the administration has an incentive to address high beef prices, the impact of these measures on consumers is unlikely to be immediate.
The U.S. cattle herd has been shrinking for five years, reaching its smallest size in decades, which has fueled record beef prices. On January 1, the herd numbered 86.2 million head, the lowest in 75 years. Beef prices have risen substantially faster than overall food prices, with ground beef prices increasing by nearly 57% from July 2021 to July 2026, and steak prices rising 35% over the same period.
Despite the supply challenges, Glynn Tonsor of Kansas State University suggested that the U.S. beef industry's efficiency has helped mitigate the price impact. The New World screwworm fly remains a significant threat to the $113 billion cattle industry, having returned to southern Mexico and spread into Texas and New Mexico. The phased border reopening, starting with Arizona, is considered a careful, science-based approach by officials like U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and House Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman.
Factors contributing to the small U.S. herd include drought in cattle-producing regions and persistently low cattle prices over the past two decades, forcing ranchers to reduce their herds. This shortage has also led to beef processing plants operating below capacity, with Tyson Foods announcing plant closures.