Key facts
- ECB wage tracker projects 2.6%-2.7% negotiated pay growth through Q1 2027.
- ECB wage tracker projects pay growth to reach 2.8% by Q1 2027.
- ECB considers 3% wage growth consistent with its 2% inflation target.
The European Central Bank's updated wage tracker suggests a modest increase in negotiated pay growth in the first half of 2027, following steady increases throughout 2026. The tracker indicates projected negotiated wage growth of 2.6% to 2.7% through the end of the first quarter of 2027, with a subsequent pick-up to 2.8%. The ECB closely monitors wage developments to assess whether recent inflation surges are leading to excessive pay demands. However, the bank has consistently argued that wage growth figures around 3% are compatible with its 2% inflation target. The latest data release, dated July 29, 2026, extends the forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker to March 2027, with further extensions planned as more agreements are signed. The tracker with smoothed one-off payments indicates 2.3% growth in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027, while the version with unsmoothed one-off payments shows 2.6% for 2026 and 2.7% for the first quarter of 2027.