Key facts
- Decision Desk HQ projected Democrats would win Senate control, posting the call on X.
- The forecaster's model gave Democrats a 52-48 Senate majority and a 64% chance of control.
- Decision Desk HQ gave Democrat James Talarico a 61% chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton in Texas.
- Former Representative Mary Peltola had a 61% chance of unseating Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska, per the model.
- Decision Desk HQ projected Democrat Annie Andrews would oust Republican Senator Darline Graham in South Carolina.
- Republicans had a 36% probability of retaining Senate control, according to the forecast.
Democrats will win control of the US Senate, Decision Desk HQ said in a projection posted on X on November 4, 2026.
The forecaster's model had given Democrats a 64% chance of winning Senate control and projected a 52-48 majority, with Republican-held seats in Texas, Alaska and Maine identified as the most likely pickups. It gave Democrat James Talarico a 61% chance of defeating Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas, and former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola the same probability of unseating Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska. In Maine, former state Senate President Troy Jackson had a 63% chance of defeating Republican Senator Susan Collins. Republicans had a 36% probability of retaining control, according to the forecast.
Decision Desk HQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley cautioned against drawing conclusions from early voting figures, which he said had generally been more favorable to Democrats than in 2024. "Friends don't let friends read too much into absentee and early voting data," Skelley wrote on Substack. He noted that Republicans have increasingly favored voting on Election Day, so strong Democratic turnout during early voting would not necessarily translate into victories.
In Texas, voters identified as Republicans by a statistical model accounted for 42% of early ballots cast through October 31, compared with 39% for Democrats, a narrower advantage than Republicans held in 2024. Skelley said early voting figures did not guarantee a Talarico victory because Paxton could receive additional support from voters casting ballots on Election Day. In Florida, registered Republicans accounted for about 41% of early and absentee ballots cast as of November 1, compared with 38% for registered Democrats, and Decision Desk HQ gave Republicans roughly a 75% chance of retaining that Senate seat. In North Carolina, Democrats accounted for 38% of early voters against 26% for Republicans, though Skelley said stronger Election Day turnout could narrow the gap. He also cautioned that Democratic early-voting gains in traditionally Republican Kansas and Iowa might not overcome those states' Republican leanings.
Bloomberg Government reported that Decision Desk HQ projected Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, would defeat Republican Senator Darline Graham in South Carolina, a state Trump carried by 18 percentage points two years earlier.