Key facts
- Democrats are seeing unexpected competitiveness in states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.
- Polling indicates Democrats are competitive in 10 states Trump won by double digits.
- Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority.
- President Trump's approval rating is at a historic low of 32%.
- Republicans are outspending Democrats on future ad reservations in key states.
Democrats are finding unexpected opportunities to flip Senate seats in traditionally Republican states that President Donald Trump won by significant margins in 2024, potentially reshaping the battle for control of the chamber in the upcoming midterm elections.
While Republicans entered the cycle with a favorable map, polling now shows Democrats are competitive in 10 states Trump carried by double digits, including Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Kentucky. This trend suggests a broader swing away from the Republican Party, with the shift appearing larger in Republican-leaning areas than in Democratic ones, according to David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College.
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is narrowly leading incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall, despite Trump winning the state by 16 percentage points. Similarly, Democratic candidates Angie Nixon in Florida and Annie Andrews in South Carolina are in close races against Republican incumbents. In Kentucky, Democrat Charles Booker is within single digits of US Representative Andy Barr in the race to succeed Senator Mitch McConnell, though Barr holds a significant cash advantage.
President Trump's declining approval rating, currently at 32% according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and voter concerns about the cost of living may be making him a liability in some of these battleground states. Despite this, Trump is actively campaigning in states like Texas, Ohio, and Nebraska to boost base turnout.
Super PACs supporting Democrats see these expansion states as crucial pathways to a Senate majority, forcing Republicans to defend territory they did not anticipate. While Republicans are outspending Democrats on advertising in several of these states, the unexpected competitiveness presents Democrats with a chance to expand their reach.