Key facts
- Decision Desk HQ projected Crane the winner a week after the election, the report said.
- Crane, a former Navy SEAL and House Freedom Caucus member, first won election in 2022.
- Nez, a former Navajo Nation president, centered his campaign on affordability and economic frustrations.
- The district covers much of northern and eastern Arizona, including Flagstaff and the Navajo Nation.
- National Republicans put money into a district President Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
Representative Eli Crane, a Republican, is projected to win reelection in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ, defeating Democrat Jonathan Nez for the second consecutive election cycle. The projection came a week after the election, the report said, because the race was close enough that DDHQ did not call it sooner.
The report said Democrats are preparing to take over the House next year with a larger majority than expected, and described the Crane-Nez race as a mirror to the rest of the country. The contest became unexpectedly competitive in its final weeks, with national Republicans putting money into a district President Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from likely Republican to lean Republican in October, the report said. DDHQ's final preelection forecast rated the district likely Republican and projected a roughly 6-point margin for the incumbent.
Crane, a former Navy SEAL and member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, has been a Trump ally since first winning election in 2022 and was among the Republicans who voted to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in 2023. Nez, a former Navajo Nation president, made affordability and economic frustrations central to his campaign and criticized Crane's support for the president's agenda. Nez lost to Crane in 2024 by roughly 9 percentage points but drew more national attention and financial support in the rematch.
The district covers much of northern and eastern Arizona, including Flagstaff and the Navajo Nation, where the report said healthcare access, infrastructure and the cost of living have been central concerns for voters. Crane's victory secures him a third term in Congress.