Key facts
- Global heating made hot, dry, and windy weather at least 20 times more likely in Spain and twice as likely in France, according to a World Weather Attribution (WWA) analysis.
- The intense heatwave at the end of June, which is estimated to have killed 20,000 people, could not have happened without the extra heat trapped by carbon pollution.
- Wildfires in western Europe were worsened by 'whiplash conditions' of a wet winter and spring followed by dry, hot summers.
- Wildfire smoke increased particulate pollution peak levels up to 20 times above 'fair air quality' standards, affecting areas up to 400 km away.
- Severe wildfires have destroyed thousands of homes and forced over 300,000 people to flee in Spain and France.
The climate crisis has significantly amplified the conditions leading to severe wildfires in Spain and France, according to a new analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium. The study found that global heating made the hot, dry, and windy weather conducive to these fires at least 20 times more likely in Spain and twice as likely in France.
This finding is the latest in a series of studies linking Europe's sweltering summer to the increased global temperatures caused by burning fossil fuels. A previous WWA study indicated that the intense heatwave at the end of June, which is estimated to have killed 20,000 people, would not have occurred without the additional heat trapped by carbon pollution. Another study highlighted how climate change-driven heat was exacerbating extreme drought across Europe by drying out soils.
The new analysis used the 'daily severity rating' metric, which measures how severe a wildfire could become if ignited. The intense heat and parched land contributed to very high ratings. The wildfires this year were also influenced by 'whiplash conditions'—a wet winter and spring leading to increased vegetation growth, which then dried out to serve as fuel. Global heating is contributing to wetter winters and drier, hotter summers in Europe.
Dr. Clair Barnes, a research associate at Imperial College London and part of the WWA study, expressed concern, noting that the findings are 'extremely scary' given that it is still early in the fire season and another heatwave is looming. Julie Arrighi, director of programmes at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, stated that current events 'go well beyond what we would expect from past events.'
The wildfires have released substantial plumes of toxic smoke, with Dr. Augustin Colette of the French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks reporting particulate pollution peaks up to 20 times above 'fair air quality' levels, with poor air quality extending up to 400 km from the fires. It is estimated that wildfire smoke shortens the lives of about 1.5 million people annually.