Key facts
- China's January to September purchases of non-soy US farm goods totaled $7.2 billion, per a Reuters analysis of customs data.
- The White House said in May that Beijing agreed to buy $17 billion of US agricultural goods annually from 2026.
- COFCO Futures forecast about 900,000 tons of US corn imports for the 2026/27 marketing year, which started in September.
- US sorghum shipments to China peaked at 6.5 million metric tons worth $2.1 billion in 2021, before Brazilian competition.
- About half of US fed-cattle slaughter capacity is ineligible to export to China, per the US Meat Export Federation.
- The White House has not said when the $17 billion commitment's clock starts, leaving breach unclear.
China bought $7.2 billion of US agricultural goods other than soybeans between January and September, the lowest for that period since 2019, according to a Reuters analysis of customs data. The White House said in May that Beijing had agreed to buy $17 billion of US farm goods annually from 2026, with this year's target prorated, on top of an October commitment to buy US soybeans.
Whether Beijing is in breach is unclear. The White House has not said whether the clock began after the May announcement or will start once China's proposed tariff cuts are finalised, which has not happened. The US Department of Agriculture referred questions on the prorating schedule to the Office of the US Trade Representative. The USTR, the White House and China's Ministry of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.
Analysts said weak Chinese demand and competition make the target hard to reach without state-directed buying. COFCO Futures, a broker affiliated with the Chinese state trader, said last month that US corn was not competitive partly because of ample domestic supply, and forecast about 900,000 tons of US corn imports for the 2026/27 marketing year that started in September. China imported $5.6 billion of corn, almost 20 million metric tons, at the 2021 peak.
US sorghum shipments to China peaked at 6.5 million metric tons worth $2.1 billion in 2021 and now face competition from Brazil, which secured access in September 2025. Brazil has shipped 1.7 million metric tons to China so far this year, with nearly 1 million more planned, said Eduardo Vanin, senior agriculture strategist at Marex. US government data show about 3.7 million tons of sorghum went to China up to the end of August, above a year earlier when trade stalled, but sales have dried up over the past four months.
US meat faces similar constraints, with domestic pork and chicken oversupplied and US beef prices high as herds have declined. About half of US fed-cattle slaughter capacity is ineligible to export to China, according to the US Meat Export Federation, even after China renewed licences in May for more than 400 US beef plants. Some plants were barred after Chinese authorities reported residues of substances not approved in China, said Joe Schuele, a spokesperson for the federation.