Key facts
- China's 21st Party Congress in 2027 is expected to see a significant promotion of leaders born in the late 1960s and 1970s.
- Many current provincial leaders born in the 1970s hold doctorates (43.1%) or master's degrees (48.3%).
- The next generation of leaders will need to balance technocratic performance with political loyalty to Xi Jinping.
- Xi Jinping's leadership has shifted focus from economic development to security, impacting governance capability.
China's Communist Party is preparing for its fifth plenum, a key event preceding the 21st Party Congress in 2027, where a new generation of leaders is expected to rise. The 'seventh generation,' born in the late 1960s and 1970s, are set to take on more senior roles, with projections indicating they could constitute over 60% of provincial leaders after upcoming reshuffles. This transition occurs amidst a debate on whether the party will prioritize technocratic competence, as seen in past decades of growth, or emphasize political loyalty and ideological conformity aligned with Xi Jinping's agenda.