Key facts
- China's missile strike capability against Australia is growing.
- The threat is expected to increase significantly over the next decade.
- New long-range stealth bombers and potential missile deployments to closer bases could escalate the threat.
- China could establish bases in Pacific Island nations, bringing central Australia within bomber combat range.
- Near-term threats include cyberattacks, cutting undersea communication cables, and disrupting maritime trade.
- The DF-27 missile, with a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers, is cited as a concern.
- The report assesses China's military capability, not its intentions.
China's capacity to militarily strike Australia is set to expand significantly over the next decade, with immediate threats also stemming from cyberattacks and the severing of undersea communication cables, according to a report by the Lowy Institute. The Sydney-based think tank stated that a new long-range stealth bomber under development, coupled with the potential deployment of missiles and aircraft to bases closer to Australia, could "quickly and dramatically" increase the long-term threat. The report noted that China has actively sought basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018, which could bring central Australia within bomber combat range and enable more frequent attacks. Near-term risks also include China's ability to disrupt Australia's maritime trade through key chokepoints. The report highlights that China can already strike northern Australia with missiles deployed from its South China Sea outposts, and specifically mentions the DF-27 missile with a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers. The Lowy Institute emphasized that its assessment focuses on Beijing's military capabilities rather than its intentions, describing the report as neither alarmist nor complacent. Sam Roggeveen, director of the institute's International Security Program, stated that China's military build-up is reshaping the Indo-Pacific balance of power in ways that affect Australian security, regardless of direct strike capability, and called for a more informed public discussion. Australia, while wary of China's expanding influence in the Pacific, is pursuing security deals with Pacific nations to prevent Beijing from establishing a permanent military presence. The Solomon Islands, which signed a security pact with China in 2022, is seen as having close ties to Beijing, prompting concern from Australia and the United States.