Key facts
- Domestic passenger vehicle sales are forecast to fall to 18.5 million in 2026.
- Sales in 2025 reached 23.7 million vehicles.
- A 2% median rebound is expected in 2027.
- Recovery factors include easing headwinds, reduced cost pressure, and improved product offerings.
China's domestic passenger vehicle market is expected to experience a modest recovery in 2027 following a steeper-than-anticipated downturn in 2026, according to Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association. Sales are projected to drop to 18.5 million vehicles in 2026, down from 23.7 million in 2025, before a median 2% rebound in 2027. Cui attributed the anticipated recovery to the fading of short-term headwinds, easing cost pressures, and an improved product landscape, though he cautioned that competition is likely to intensify and become more polarized.