Key facts
- Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev has halted military support to Ukraine, citing the cause as 'doomed'.
- Bulgaria did not join a special tribunal to prosecute Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
- Radev has expressed concerns about EU sanctions targeting the head of the Russian Orthodox Church.
- Bulgaria agreed to host US aerial refueling tankers to support operations in the Middle East.
- A new budget projects a 5.7% GDP deficit and authorizes significant new government borrowing.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev's recent foreign policy decisions have drawn comparisons to Hungary's Viktor Orbán, raising concerns within the European Union. After his Progressive Bulgaria party secured an overwhelming majority in April's election, Radev has taken steps that appear to distance Bulgaria from its traditional pro-European and pro-NATO stance.
In May, Bulgaria halted military support to Kyiv, with Radev stating his belief that the Ukrainian cause was 'doomed.' Bulgaria also did not sign up to a special tribunal to prosecute Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. During a visit to Paris for Bastille Day, Radev announced Bulgaria's withdrawal from the 'coalition of the willing,' citing the country's limited capacity to aid Ukraine and suggesting military support only prolongs the conflict. However, shortly after, Bulgaria agreed to host up to eight US aerial refueling tankers at the Bezmer military base to support US operations in the Middle East.
Analysts suggest Radev's approach is more transactional, maintaining commitment to the EU and NATO while distancing the country from emerging European security architecture. Maria Simeonova of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted a lack of ideological consistency in his foreign policy, which is becoming increasingly visible. Radev has also recently aligned himself with Orthodox Christianity and traditional family values, supporting events that oppose LGBTQ+ rights. He also threatened to veto the EU's 21st sanctions package against Russia, specifically measures targeting Patriarch Kirill, citing religious solidarity.
Sources close to the Bulgarian Orthodox Church described Radev's religious alignment as purely political and a gesture towards Moscow. Dimitar Keranov of the German Marshall Fund believes Radev is attempting to appease a diverse electorate by making both pro-European and pro-Russian statements, a tactic he predicts will ultimately fail. Vladislav Bonev, an IT student, expressed disappointment with the pro-Russian rhetoric but believes Radev lacks the power to pull Bulgaria out of the EU or NATO.
While Radev may not be as disruptive to the EU as Orbán, his actions could marginalize Bulgaria and its businesses, according to Simeonova. Keranov suggests that if given enough time, Radev could consolidate power and pursue more pro-Russian policies. The country faces domestic challenges as well, with a newly approved budget that freezes the minimum wage and projects a significant GDP deficit, potentially leading to protests.