Key facts
- Russia and Ukraine struck 317 merchant and other vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October, per Ambrey Analytics.
- Russia struck 38 ships in October against 5 Ukrainian strikes, Ambrey said.
- Russia exported 0.3 million metric tons of grain through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov in September, down from 4.74 million a year earlier.
- Ukraine's port grain exports fell to 0.81 million metric tons in September from 2.1 million a year earlier, government data showed.
- NATO said it would invest more than $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over five years, a NATO official said.
- Russia has rejected a narrow maritime ceasefire proposal, saying it would give Kyiv respite.
Russia and Ukraine struck 317 merchant and other vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October, more than four times the 74 vessels hit in the previous half-year, according to Tomas Alexa, a senior analyst at Ambrey Analytics. The attacks have narrowed a route used to export grain and oil from both countries.
After seven strikes on cargo ships near NATO members Romania and Bulgaria in October, the US-led alliance said it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to its eastern flank. Three days later, on October 23, another ship was struck just outside Romanian waters, and in the week before November 3 a Greek container ship was sunk by naval drones in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.
Military analysts said they had little doubt the strikes were Russian. A naval drone seen on video of the last strike resembled a Russian variant, according to shipping security firm Ambrey. "I think it's undeniably an escalation," said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior fellow at the London-based RUSI think-tank. Russia denies targeting Ukraine's neighbors with drones and says European governments are escalating the war by supplying military aid. Russia's defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
Many of the ships hit in October were anchored near or sailing to or from a Romanian canal used by Ukraine for exports. One was in Romanian territorial waters, while the other eight were in Romania's or Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone. Bucharest has accused Russia of "systematic" strikes on civilian ships but stopped short of attributing individual attacks, citing the need for forensic evidence. Sofia has not blamed Russia but said some attacks seem to benefit it.
A NATO official said Russian actions aimed at dissuading allies from supporting Ukraine were a serious security threat and that the alliance's commitment to defending all members was "ironclad." The official said the alliance had committed to investing more than $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years.
Russia exported 0.3 million metric tons of grain through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov in September, down from 4.74 million metric tons a year earlier, according to Russian export data seen by Reuters. Ukraine's port exports of grain fell to 0.81 million metric tons in September from 2.1 million a year earlier, government data showed, after it suspended Black Sea port operations in late July and diverted volumes to Danube river ports and Romania's Sulina Canal.
Turkey, which controls warship transit through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles under the Montreux Convention, is waiting for a response from Moscow and Kyiv on a narrow maritime ceasefire proposal. Russia has rejected the idea, saying it would give Kyiv respite. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday there was growing international interest in a limited ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last month: "Everyone is talking about diesel and forgetting about grain. In a month or two, everyone will start talking about an agricultural crisis."