Key facts
- Argentina's wheat crop forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year has been revised upward, but production is still expected to fall 23% year-on-year.
- Argentina's wheat exports are projected to increase by 1 million tons to 15.5 million tons in MY 2026/27.
- Australian wheat harvest estimates for 2025/2026 were revised upward to 36 million tonnes, a 13% year-on-year increase.
- Favorable weather conditions are cited as the reason for the upward revision in Australia's wheat harvest forecast.
- Australia's total grain and oilseed throughput will place substantial demand on regional infrastructure.
Official estimates for Australia's 2025/2026 winter crops have been revised upward, with the gross wheat harvest forecast increasing by 2 million tonnes to 36 million tonnes, marking a 13% year-on-year expansion. This upward revision is attributed to higher-than-anticipated yields across major producing zones. Concurrently, barley production estimates reached a record 16.3 million tonnes, and rapeseed estimates rose to 7.7 million tonnes. This substantial output places significant demand on Australia's storage, rail, and port capacity, requiring efficient logistics to compete with an expanding Argentine export program of 17.5 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Argentina's wheat crop forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year has been revised upward, though overall production is still expected to decline by 23% year-on-year. Argentina's wheat exports are projected to increase by 1 million tons to 15.5 million tons, while barley production has been reduced by 200,000 tons due to adverse weather. Corn exports from Argentina are forecast to rise by 3 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.