Key facts
- A 'super' El Niño is expected to cause a $10 billion to $20 billion economic hit across Africa.
- The event threatens food and water security, government finances, and banking sectors.
- Mass migration is anticipated from severely affected regions.
- The African Development Bank is preparing to restructure projects and seek additional climate finance.
- Countries like Sudan, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and Nigeria are identified as potentially facing severe impacts.
A severe 'super' El Niño event is poised to cause a significant economic downturn across Africa, with the African Development Bank (AfDB) estimating a hit of $10 billion to $20 billion. This weather pattern, which often brings droughts, floods, and storms, could become one of the strongest on record, threatening food and water security and potentially destabilizing government finances and banking sectors. Anthony Nyong, the AfDB's director for climate change and green growth, stated that the event could reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by 1% to 2% on average. The bank also anticipates mass migration from hard-hit areas. Nyong highlighted that this economic shock could push countries further into poverty and trap them in climate finance cycles, forcing budget raids on essential services. The AfDB plans to convene a seminar in September to assess the impact on its investments and is ready to restructure projects and help countries access funds from mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund. The estimated need for additional climate adaptation finance this year for Africa could range from $30 billion to $50 billion on top of the existing $50 billion requirement.