Key facts
- US core PCE inflation for May may be revised lower.
- Methodological changes by the Bureau of Economic Analysis are causing the potential revision.
- Goldman Sachs estimates the year-on-year core PCE increase could be trimmed to 3.2%.
US core PCE inflation for May may be revised downward due to methodological changes by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Goldman Sachs anticipates a potential reduction in the year-on-year increase to 3.2% from the previously estimated 3.4%. Meanwhile, Brazil's central government reported a primary deficit of 40.6 billion reais ($7.4 billion) in May, a 36.2% decrease compared to the previous year and better than market expectations.

Upcoming methodological changes by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in how it calculates prices for certain services are expected to lead to a downward revision of the May core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate. Economists are anticipating this adjustment, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the year-on-year increase could be revised to 3.2%, down from the previously reported 3.4%. This change in calculation methodology is specific to how certain service prices are assessed.
In separate economic news, Brazil's central government registered a primary deficit of 40.6 billion reais in May. This figure represents a significant improvement, being 36.2% lower than the deficit recorded in May of the previous year. The reported deficit also surpassed market expectations, which had projected a larger shortfall for the month. The primary deficit is a measure of the government's financial balance before interest payments on its debt.
Upcoming methodological changes by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in how it calculates prices for certain services are expected to lead to a downward revision of the May core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate. Economists are anticipating this adjustment, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the year-on-year increase could be revised to 3.2%, down from the previously reported 3.4%. This change in calculation methodology is specific to how certain service prices are assessed.