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US services activity expands in July, input costs increase

Created at 5 Aug · 5:12 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

The U.S. services sector showed continued growth in July, with the ISM's nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index rising to 54.1. However, strong demand is encountering supply constraints, leading to increased input costs for businesses and potentially contributing to sustained inflation.

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Key Numbers

54.1ISM Services PMI for July
54.0ISM Services PMI for June
57.2New orders index for services businesses in July
55.1New orders index for services businesses in June
52.8Supplier deliveries index for services businesses in July
54.4Supplier deliveries index for services businesses in June

Who's Involved

Priscilla Thiagamoorthy
Senior economist at BMO Capital Markets
Steve Miller
ISM Services Business Survey Committee chair
Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
Provider of the nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index
BMO Capital Markets
Economic analysis provider
US services activity expands in July, input costs increase

↳ Why This Matters

The resilience of the U.S. services sector and rising input costs suggest that inflationary pressures may persist, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. This data indicates the economy started the third quarter on a solid footing, but the combination of strong demand and cost pressures could reinforce a higher-for-longer interest rate stance.

Key facts

  • U.S. services sector activity expanded in July.
  • The ISM nonmanufacturing index rose to 54.1, indicating growth.
  • Input costs for businesses increased due to supply constraints and strong demand.
  • New orders for services businesses saw a significant jump.
  • Thirteen industries reported growth, including retail trade and construction.

The U.S. services sector demonstrated continued strength in July, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index rising slightly to 54.1 from 54.0 in June. This indicates ongoing expansion in a sector that constitutes a significant portion of the U.S. economy. However, the report highlighted a tension between robust demand and persistent supply constraints, which are driving up input costs for businesses. This situation could contribute to elevated inflation levels.

Key components of the report showed a notable increase in new orders, jumping to 57.2 from 55.1, suggesting businesses are anticipating continued demand, possibly influenced by efforts to secure supplies ahead of potential disruptions related to the Middle East conflict. The FIFA World Cup also provided a likely boost to new orders. Despite strong demand, supplier deliveries continued to lag, with the index slipping to 52.8 from 54.4, indicating that suppliers are still struggling to meet demand.

Purchasing managers cited rising costs for fuel and labor as primary drivers, with some reporting increased competition for materials and a trend of suppliers requiring upfront payments. While tariff impacts and the Middle East conflict were mentioned less frequently than in previous reports, they remain factors influencing business operations. Thirteen industries reported growth, including retail trade, information, and construction, while sectors like healthcare and social assistance experienced contraction.

Frequently asked questions

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, also known as the Services PMI, is an economic indicator that measures the economic health of the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

A reading of 54.1 indicates that the services sector is expanding at a solid pace, as it is above the 50 threshold that signifies growth.

Rising input costs are primarily driven by fuel and labor costs, as well as high demand for electric utility materials and lumber, leading to competition among suppliers and challenges in freight availability.

What Happens Next

01The Federal Reserve will consider this data in its upcoming monetary policy decisions.
02Future ISM Services reports will indicate if demand-supply imbalances continue.

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How It Developed

The U.S. services sector maintained strong growth in July.
The ISM's nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index increased to 54.1 in July from 54.0 in June.
Thirteen industries reported growth, while four contracted.
Purchasing managers noted rising input costs driven by fuel, labor, and material demand.
New orders for services businesses jumped to 57.2 from 55.1 in June.
Supplier deliveries continued to struggle to keep up with demand.

Sources

T1
US services activity stays strong in July, input costs risePiQSuite
T2
WRAPUP 2-US services activity stays strong in July, input costs risedevdiscourse.com
T2
US services activity stays strong in July, input costs riselufkindailynews.com

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