Key facts
- Italian industrial output rose 0.2% month-on-month in June, defying expectations.
- Year-on-year output contracted by 0.9% in June.
- The Italian economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter.
- Second-quarter industrial output increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter.
- Manufacturing sector shows tentative signs of stabilization.
Italy's industrial output saw an unexpected increase of 0.2% in June compared to the previous month, according to data from the national statistics bureau ISTAT. This figure defied market expectations, which had largely predicted a decline. The gain was broad-based across industrial sectors, with the exception of consumer goods.
However, on a year-on-year basis, industrial output still contracted by 0.9% in June, following a similar 1.0% decrease in May. The Italian economy itself unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter, signaling potential headwinds. While industrial production rose 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, the overall outlook for the eurozone's third-largest economy remains uncertain.
Despite the tentative signs of stabilization in the manufacturing sector, which has faced prolonged challenges, the persistent weakness is underlined by a 1.1% year-on-year decline in industrial output during the first half of the year. The government's growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward, aligning with most analyst expectations.