Key facts
- Goldman Sachs revised India's 2026 current account deficit forecast to 1.3% of GDP, down from 2%.
- A balance of payments surplus of 0.6% of GDP is projected for 2026.
- India recorded a $7.2 billion BoP surplus in the January-March quarter.
- Strong remittances, services exports, and lower oil imports supported the surplus.
- Goldman Sachs anticipates that higher oil prices will widen the CAD but with less severity than previously.
- The firm estimates that recent RBI measures could attract approximately $60 billion in capital inflows by 2026.
Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for India's external finances, projecting a lower current account deficit (CAD) for 2026 and anticipating a balance of payments (BoP) surplus. The firm's updated forecast places the 2026 CAD at 1.3% of GDP, a reduction from the previous 2% estimate, and forecasts a BoP surplus of 0.6% of GDP, moving from deficits in prior years.