Key facts
- Energy prices are projected to fall 5.7% month-over-month in June 2026.
- This follows a 3.9% increase in energy prices in May.
- Retail electricity prices have outpaced inflation since 2022 and are expected to continue rising.
- Overall energy prices surged from 2020-2022, with gasoline and heating oil prices declining since then.
- Electricity expenditures averaged $1,760 per U.S. consumer in 2023.
Energy prices are anticipated to decrease by 5.7% month-over-month in June 2026, according to projections based on recent inflation data. This expected decline in the U.S. Consumer Price Index energy component, which includes gasoline, fuel oil, electricity, and natural gas, follows a 3.9% increase observed in May. The anticipated drop suggests a potential moderation of overall inflation pressures, a key concern for markets and policymakers.
Despite the projected decrease in some energy prices, retail electricity prices have been steadily increasing faster than the rate of inflation since 2022 and are expected to continue this trend through 2026. Forecasts indicate that regions with already high electricity prices may experience more significant increases. These retail prices encompass the costs of generating, transmitting, and delivering electricity, as well as taxes and fees, with utilities undertaking substantial capital investments in infrastructure.
Overall U.S. energy prices saw a rapid increase from 2020 to 2022, influenced by economic recovery and supply chain disruptions. While nominal prices for fuels like gasoline and heating oil have since declined, electricity prices have shown a consistent upward trend. In 2023, U.S. consumers spent an average of approximately $1,760 on electricity, a figure surpassed only by gasoline expenditures.