Key facts
- Pakistan and Iran are strengthening security and economic cooperation, with a focus on border management and counterterrorism.
- Bilateral trade aims to increase to $10 billion from $3 billion through improved infrastructure and customs facilitation.
- High-level meetings between Iranian and Pakistani officials, including Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, have intensified.
- Pakistan continues to play a mediating role in the US-Iran conflict, with Chinese backing.
- Concerns exist regarding alleged Chinese transshipment of missiles to Iran via Pakistan.
Pakistan is actively deepening its relationship with Iran, focusing on enhanced security cooperation, border management, and economic ties. This strategic pivot occurs amidst a volatile regional landscape, particularly the ongoing conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran, which has led to significant shifts in Tehran's leadership and foreign policy orientation towards a security-first approach.
Following a period of intense conflict, including attacks by the U.S. and Israel and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's decision-making has become more decentralized and dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Supreme National Security Council. Key figures within the IRGC and security apparatus, such as Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi, are now central to policy, potentially exhibiting a higher risk tolerance.
Pakistan has played a crucial role as a mediator, brokering a memorandum of understanding that temporarily halted hostilities. Despite the truce unraveling, Pakistan continues its mediation efforts with Chinese backing, and Iran has signaled openness to Islamabad's role. High-level engagement has intensified, with Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visiting Pakistan multiple times in July 2026 to discuss regional security, counterterrorism, border management, and combating illicit trafficking.
Economically, both nations are committed to significantly increasing bilateral trade from $3 billion towards $10 billion by improving transport links, customs, and railway infrastructure. This economic cooperation is seen as vital for realizing the potential of China's Belt and Road Initiative, in which both Iran and Pakistan are key partners. Stability in both countries is crucial for these initiatives.
The security-heavy orientation in Tehran is seen as reinforcing pragmatic engagement with Pakistan, aligning with shared concerns over Baloch militancy and regional instability. Direct engagement between security officials from both nations facilitates coordination and intelligence sharing. However, potential constraints include a harder IRGC line on broader regional conflicts, which could strain Pakistan's ties with the U.S. and Gulf states, and the risk of secondary sanctions. A recent report of China transshipping missiles to Iran via Pakistan also presents a complication.
Overall, the near-to-medium term outlook for Pakistan-Iran relations is positive and security-driven, with continued high-level meetings and progress on trade and connectivity. Pakistan aims to leverage its position as a mediator and bilateral partner to secure energy access, foster economic activity, and maintain regional stability.