Key facts
- US and Saudi forces conducted joint strikes on Iran-linked militia bases in Iraq on July 29.
- The strikes killed at least 20 militia members and four Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps advisers.
- The action was in retaliation for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities originating from Iraq.
- Saudi Arabia stated the strikes were an act of "self-defence" and a deterrent measure.
- The strikes complicate Iraq's efforts to control non-state armed groups and deepen ties with the US and Saudi Arabia.
Joint strikes by US and Saudi forces on Iran-linked militias in Iraq last week have highlighted the precarious balance Baghdad is trying to maintain between closer ties with Riyadh and Washington, and managing powerful Tehran-aligned armed groups. The strikes, which occurred on July 29, targeted bases of Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), resulting in the deaths of at least 20 militia members and four advisers from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to Iraqi and Iranian media.
These strikes marked the first time Saudi Arabia has publicly joined such operations with the US. They were a direct response to drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities that originated from Iraqi territory. Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry characterized the action as "self-defence" and indicated a willingness to conduct further strikes if attacks on its soil persist, while signaling a desire to avoid a sustained military confrontation.
The timing of the strikes is particularly sensitive for Iraq, which is attempting to bring weapons held by non-state armed groups under state control and deepen its political and economic engagement with the US and Saudi Arabia. This situation places increased pressure on Baghdad to manage internal security while navigating complex regional relationships.
Analysts suggest Saudi Arabia's objective was primarily to restore deterrence against Iran and its Iraqi allies, rather than to initiate a new conflict. Dr. Hesham Alghannam, a Carnegie Middle East scholar, noted that the targeting of Iranian military advisers alongside militia fighters sent a clear message to Tehran that Saudi Arabia holds Iran responsible for actions directed from Iraqi soil.
While the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), an alliance of Iran-backed militias, has vowed retaliation, its rhetoric towards Riyadh has been more measured than towards Washington. The IRI has issued an August 7 deadline for Baghdad to respond, a move seen by some as an attempt to influence domestic policy and pressure the government to sever ties with Saudi Arabia, rather than an immediate signal of escalation.
Experts like Mustafa Alsaray suggest these deadlines are often political messages aimed at achieving specific outcomes. Alternatively, the groups might be coordinating their response with Tehran and the broader "Axis of Resistance," especially given recent signs of de-escalation in US-Iran relations. However, a renewed confrontation could prompt further attacks on Saudi Arabia and potentially other Gulf states.
The developments are expected to test Iraq's ability to advance its security reforms and maintain its growing economic and political ties with Riyadh. The government is pursuing a disarmament plan with a September 30 deadline for armed groups. However, the recent strikes and Baghdad's perceived inability to prevent them have strengthened the resolve of some factions to retain their weapons. Kataeb Hezbollah, for instance, has stated the attacks reinforced its commitment to developing its arsenal.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's recent visit to Washington resulted in numerous agreements with US firms, but deeper economic ties are contingent on Baghdad's success in constraining militias involved in attacks on US facilities. Similarly, Saudi investment prospects in Iraq could be jeopardized if Baghdad fails to control these groups, with September 30 seen as a critical test for Saudi and Emirati investors.