Israel prepares for US-Iran deal collapse amid differing interpretations

Israel is reportedly preparing for the potential collapse of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, despite not having full access to its contents, according to Israeli newspaper Maariv. Officials in Israel believe the agreement is unlikely to endure, prompting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to instruct the security establishment and military to develop potential targets and prepare for future scenarios.

Israeli Minister Zeev Elkin stated that Israel was not directly involved in the negotiations and therefore could not insist on reviewing the memorandum of understanding. He also mentioned that attempts had been made to secure Israel's approval for a withdrawal from Lebanon, but Netanyahu had refused.

A former Israeli negotiator had previously stated that Israel is "existentially dependent on US aid." While both Washington and Tehran appear to agree that the ceasefire will extend to Lebanon, significant differences exist in its interpretation and implementation. Israeli officials have indicated their intention to remain in what they term "security zones" within Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. This stance has drawn criticism from some Israeli commentators, with headlines in Israeli media reportedly describing the agreement as an "abject failure."

Netanyahu declared a "historic victory" over Iran and stated that Israel's forces would remain in Lebanon "for as long as necessary." He claimed the joint US-Israeli military campaign had prevented "nuclear annihilation" for Israel. However, US officials have sought to reassure Israel, stating that the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon is not a condition of the pact between the US and Iran, and that Israel retains the right to self-defense against Hezbollah. Despite the preliminary agreement, sporadic violence persisted in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah welcomed the deal, linking its adherence to a comprehensive ceasefire to Israel's compliance. The situation highlights ongoing tensions, with analysts noting a widening gulf between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, and a shift in some American public opinion viewing Israel as "Goliath" rather than "David."