Key facts
- Super Micro Computer Inc. shares rose 6% to $46.53.
- The company has officially begun volume shipments of Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra Systems chips.
- SMCI is up 53% in 2025 and has reclaimed its year-over-year breakeven level.
- The stock is testing its 200-day moving average.
- A majority of analysts rate the stock as 'hold' or worse.
- Short interest accounts for 19.2% of the stock's float.
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) shares were leading the S&P 500's gainers on Monday, trading up 6% to $46.53. The rally is attributed to the company's solidified partnership with Nvidia, as Super Micro has officially begun volume shipments of Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra Systems chips.
This development has propelled SMCI's stock, which is now up 53% in 2025 and has reclaimed its year-over-year breakeven level. The shares are currently testing their 200-day moving average, a trendline that previously acted as resistance following an 18.2% post-earnings bear gap on August 2. Despite the current rally, the stock remains below its February 19 annual high of $66.43.
Despite the positive price action, a contrarian view is emerging. Out of 18 brokerages covering Super Micro, 11 maintain 'hold' or worse ratings, with a consensus 12-month price target of $45.81, representing a 2.1% discount to the current stock price. Short interest remains significant, with 95 million shares sold short, accounting for 19.2% of the stock's total available float, though it has begun to taper off.
Options market sentiment also suggests potential for unwinding bearish bets. While calls outnumber puts on an absolute basis, the rate of put buying has increased recently. The 10-day put/call ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands at 0.62, ranking in the 78th percentile of annual readings. Options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations, as indicated by Super Micro's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 56%, which is in the 3rd percentile of the past 12 months' readings. The stock has historically outperformed these volatility expectations, as reflected in its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 86 out of 100.