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ASML Faces High Bar for Earnings Amid AI Rally Wobbles

Created at 15 Jul · 4:34 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

ASML, Europe's most valuable company and a key AI chip equipment supplier, reports earnings Wednesday. Investors anticipate a strong beat, especially after IBM's significant share drop due to shifting corporate spending and a revenue miss, highlighting market fickleness in picking AI winners.

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Key Numbers

8.8%ASML Q2 net profit rise expectation
2.61 billion eurosASML Q2 net profit estimate
14%ASML Q2 revenue increase expectation
8.8 billion eurosASML Q2 revenue estimate
36 billion to 40 billion eurosASML full-year revenue forecast range
25%IBM shares drop
1%IBM projected revenue rise
$2.93IBM adjusted earnings-per-share forecast
$3.02IBM market expectations for EPS
8%KOSPI rise
$85Brent crude futures per barrel
4.3%China's economic growth in H1

Who's Involved

ASML
Europe's most valuable company and top supplier of chip-making equipment
IBM
Company whose shares shed a quarter of their value after earnings miss
Bank of Canada
Central bank expected to hold interest rates steady
Tom Westbrook
Author of the 'Morning Bid' market outlook

↳ Why This Matters

ASML's earnings report is crucial as it will indicate the health of the semiconductor industry and the demand for AI-driven technologies, especially after IBM's disappointing results highlighted market volatility and shifts in corporate spending.

Key facts

  • ASML, a top supplier of chip-making equipment, is expected to report an 8.8% rise in Q2 net profit and a 14% revenue increase.
  • IBM's stock dropped 25% after it reported lower-than-expected revenue growth and earnings forecasts.
  • The market sentiment indicates that ASML needs to deliver a substantial earnings beat.
  • China's economic growth slowed to 4.3% in the first half of the year.
  • The Bank of Canada is widely anticipated to maintain its current interest rates.

ASML, Europe's most valuable company and a critical supplier of advanced chip-making equipment, is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. The company is the sole producer of EUV lithography systems, essential for manufacturing cutting-edge chips, with analysts forecasting an 8.8% rise in net profit to 2.61 billion euros and a 14% increase in revenue to 8.8 billion euros. Investors are also anticipating an upward revision to the company's full-year revenue guidance, currently between 36 billion and 40 billion euros.

The current market sentiment suggests that ASML must deliver a significant earnings beat to meet expectations. This is underscored by the recent performance of IBM, which saw its shares plummet by 25% after failing to keep pace with the shift in corporate spending towards data-center infrastructure. IBM projected a mere 1% revenue rise and forecast adjusted earnings per share of $2.93, falling short of market expectations of $3.02.

In broader market movements, South Korea's KOSPI surged by 8% amid a surprise slowdown in U.S. inflation, which cooled expectations for further interest rate hikes. Brent crude futures held steady above $85 a barrel, though they did not reach new peaks as investors monitored the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. China's economic growth for the first half of the year slowed to 4.3%, below economists' predictions, but this had minimal market impact as investors anticipate potential fiscal stimulus.

Later on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to maintain its current interest rates.

Frequently asked questions

ASML is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography systems, which are essential for producing the most advanced semiconductor chips.

IBM's shares dropped 25% because the company reported lower-than-expected revenue growth and earnings forecasts, citing a shift in corporate spending away from software and towards data-center infrastructure.

Brent crude futures are trading above $85 a barrel, with investors watching the Strait of Hormuz for potential supply disruptions.

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting.

What Happens Next

01ASML earnings report release
02Eurozone industrial production data release
03U.S. PPI data release
04Bank of Canada interest rate decision

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How It Developed

ASML is set to report second-quarter results with expectations of an 8.8% rise in net profit and a 14% increase in revenue.
Analysts are also looking for an increase to ASML's full-year revenue forecast.
IBM's shares fell 25% after projecting only a 1% revenue rise and missing adjusted earnings-per-share expectations.
The market mood suggests only a significant earnings beat from ASML will satisfy investors.
South Korea's KOSPI rose 8% following a surprise slowdown in U.S. inflation.
Brent crude futures remained above $85 a barrel.
China's economic growth slowed to 4.3% in the first half, below economists' expectations.
The Bank of Canada is expected to hold interest rates steady.

Sources

T1
Morning Bid: Big Blue's bad day raises the bar for ASMLReuters

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