Key facts
- There is a 20% chance of tropical storm or hurricane activity in the Caribbean/Gulf between days 12-15.
- A mid-week heat wave is expected in PJM East, with temperatures potentially reaching the mid-90s in the lower Mid-Atlantic.
- The Ohio Valley experienced one of the top 10 wettest Mays on record.
- The Upper Midwest experienced a dry May with infrequent rainfall.
- Cold weather is advancing in several regions, with potential for above-average rainfall.
- The National Weather Service issued Mesoscale Discussion SPC_MD 0935 for Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri.
- A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) was observed in southern Kansas.
- 1,608 metric tons of grain were traded on ClearGrain and igrainX.
- XF demand has picked up across Victoria and New South Wales.
The forecast indicates a potential increase in tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, with a 20% chance between days 12-15, a risk elevated by an approaching favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation period. Analog patterns suggest conditions favoring the Western Grain Belt and drier weather further east. Concurrently, a brief heat wave is anticipated in PJM East mid-week, with temperatures possibly reaching the mid-90s in the lower Mid-Atlantic region. This heat could drive up electricity demand for cooling, affecting natural gas consumption and energy prices. A separate non-tropical low-pressure system is forecast for the west-central Atlantic.
Regional precipitation patterns varied significantly in May. The Upper Midwest experienced a dry month with infrequent rainfall, contrasting with the Ohio Valley, which saw multiple heavy rain events, placing it among the top 10 wettest Mays on record. Conditions improved across the Great Plains. Cold weather is advancing in several regions, and rainfall may exceed average levels, potentially impacting agricultural activities and water resources. The National Weather Service has issued Mesoscale Discussion SPC_MD 0935, covering Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri, to detail developing hazardous weather phenomena. A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) was also observed in southern Kansas, which can influence local weather and agricultural conditions.
In the agricultural sector, 1,608 metric tons of grain were traded on ClearGrain and igrainX. Demand for XF (likely referring to a specific grain contract or type) has increased across Victoria and New South Wales in Australia. Despite recent rainfall softening the domestic market, grain prices remain significantly above cash boards.