Key facts
- ECMWF EPS forecast shows a 20% chance of tropical storm/hurricane in Caribbean/Gulf in 15 days.
- Risk is concentrated between days 12-15 of the forecast period.
- A favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) period is approaching.
- Tropical forcing analogs favor the Hudson Bay Ridge signal.
- This pattern supports a favorable setup for the W. Grain Belt and drier conditions further east.
The ECMWF EPS forecast indicates a 20% chance of tropical storm or hurricane activity in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico within the next 15 days, with the risk concentrated between days 12-15. This probability is higher than climatology and is supported by an approaching favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) period. Additionally, tropical forcing analogs suggest a pattern that favors the Western Grain Belt and drier conditions further east. The verification of this developing pattern is considered critical.