Key facts
- Ukraine is considering military action against Russia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade.
- Russia's Yamal LNG Terminal accounts for 63% of total LNG exports.
- Russia relies on 15 specialized ice-class vessels for its Arctic LNG facilities.
- Major shipping companies allied with Ukraine transport a significant portion of Russia's LNG exports.
- Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to strike targets deep within Russia, including oil terminals and refineries.
- The EU is set to implement a ban on Russian LNG imports starting in 2027.
Ukraine is evaluating strategies to disrupt Russia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, a significant source of revenue for Moscow, particularly as the European Union prepares to implement a ban on Russian LNG imports in 2027. Historically reliant on pipelines, Europe has increasingly turned to LNG, with Russia also shifting its focus to Asian markets like China and India.
Despite stringent sanctions, countries including Belgium have continued to import Russian LNG. Ukraine has demonstrated a growing capacity to strike Russian shipping, raising the possibility of targeting LNG tankers or export facilities. Russia's Yamal LNG Terminal, responsible for the majority of its LNG exports, depends on specialized ice-breaking vessels, which could become targets for Ukrainian drones. However, a significant portion of these exports are carried by ships operated by companies from allied nations like Greece, Japan, and the UK, complicating Ukraine's targeting options.
Attacking ports presents another potential avenue for Ukraine. The country has previously damaged Russian oil and gas terminals. With expanding drone capabilities, Ukraine may be able to strike key LNG export terminals, including those in the Arctic, which are over 3,100 km away. The proximity of terminals in Russia's Leningrad Oblast, around 1,130 km away, makes them theoretically reachable by Ukrainian drones, as evidenced by recent strikes on oil infrastructure in Vysotsk and Omsk.
However, Ukraine faces considerations regarding potential risks, such as frustrating EU governments, weakening support for sanctions, or jeopardizing military assistance. EU gas storage levels may also influence Ukraine's strategic calculations regarding potential targets.