An official assessment indicates Great Britain could face gas shortages by the 2030s due to depleting North Sea supplies and insufficient industry preparation for low-probability, high-impact events. Ministers are considering unprecedented financial support for aging gas infrastructure.
The UK's energy security is at risk due to declining domestic gas production and insufficient industry preparation for supply shocks, potentially impacting millions of households and industries reliant on gas for heating, power, and production.
Great Britain faces a significant risk of gas shortages by the 2030s, even with the growth of clean energy sources, unless ministers implement "unprecedented" measures to secure supply. An official assessment highlighted that a "high stress scenario" could leave homes and businesses without gas within the next decade, as North Sea supplies continue to deplete.
Most respondents to a government consultation agreed that the industry is unlikely to prepare for "low probability, high-impact events" that could lead to dry gas supplies. A warning from the National Energy System Operator last year, echoed by three-quarters of respondents, indicated an "emerging risk to gas supply security" that could leave homes and businesses without gas during prolonged cold weather by 2030.
Energy Minister Michael Shanks acknowledged that any government intervention or investment in the gas market would be unprecedented and requires careful consideration. Potential measures include offering financial support to gas storage facility owners and pipeline operators to ensure the economic viability of upgrading and maintaining this infrastructure for future decades. Shanks emphasized that while the UK will continue to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, the gas system will remain crucial for decades to come, necessitating a responsibility to households, industries, and the power system that depend on it.
The government's renewed focus on gas supply security comes as it prepares to decide on controversial North Sea oil and gas field proposals, such as the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields. Prime Minister has stated a "pragmatic" approach to North Sea drilling, acknowledging the available resource and the need to address public struggles.
Government figures show gas accounted for over a third of the UK's energy consumption last year. While UK gas use is expected to decrease substantially by 2050, domestic supplies are projected to fall at a faster rate. North Sea oil and gas production, in decline for 25 years, is anticipated to decrease by approximately 5% annually, raising concerns about future gas security. The energy system operator's assessment also warned of potential shortfalls during unusually cold periods, particularly if European storage levels are low or if there are unexpected outages at import terminals or pipelines. Over the past five years, UK North Sea fields supplied nearly half of the gas used domestically, with Norway providing just over a third, and imports from the US and Middle East via tankers making up a fifth.