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Rising temperatures could keep more flights from taking off on time

Created at 5 Aug · 11:11 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Extreme heat can make it harder for aircraft to generate lift and thrust, potentially leading to flight delays. Airlines may need to reduce passenger or cargo loads, or carry less fuel, on hotter days. Climate change is expected to make these disruptions more common.

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Key Numbers

114 Ftemperature in Las Vegas on July 24
47 Ctemperature in Las Vegas on July 24
10% to 30%projected flight weight restrictions by midcentury
2065year for European airport weight shedding projection
43 daysaverage days above 110 F annually in Phoenix since 2020
18 daysaverage days above 110 F annually in Las Vegas (2020-2025)
55 daysaverage days above 110 F annually in Palm Springs this decade
83%increase in Palm Springs days above 110 F this decade vs 2000s

Who's Involved

American Airlines
offered compensation for voluntary seat relinquishments due to heat
Ross Aimer
CEO of Aero Consulting Experts, explained flight physics in hot air
Alan Price
retired Delta Air Lines captain, discussed takeoff calculations
Federal Aviation Administration
notes takeoff limits vary by aircraft, weight, and altitude
Columbia University
researchers involved in a 2017 study on heat and flight restrictions
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies
researchers involved in a 2017 study on heat and flight restrictions
Logistics Management Institute
researchers involved in a 2017 study on heat and flight restrictions

↳ Why This Matters

Human-caused climate change is projected to make heat-related flight disruptions more frequent, impacting air travel reliability and potentially increasing costs for airlines and passengers.

Key facts

  • Extreme heat reduces air density, making it harder for airplanes to achieve safe takeoff speeds.
  • Airlines may reduce aircraft weight by removing passengers, cargo, or fuel to compensate for hot conditions.
  • Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of such flight disruptions.
  • Airports with higher elevations or shorter runways are more susceptible to heat-related takeoff issues.
  • Studies suggest a significant increase in flight weight restrictions at various airports by midcentury due to rising temperatures.

Extreme heat is increasingly causing flight delays and disruptions, a phenomenon well-known in desert climates but also affecting airports with higher elevations or shorter runways. On hot days, thinner air makes it more difficult for aircraft wings to generate sufficient lift and for jet engines to produce adequate thrust for takeoff. This can force airlines to reduce the aircraft's weight by removing passengers, cargo, or fuel, or to delay flights until temperatures decrease.

Ross Aimer, CEO of Aero Consulting Experts, explained that the science of flight dictates that jet engines require cool, dense air for optimal performance, likening the effect to athletes competing at high altitudes. Retired Delta Air Lines captain Alan Price noted that pilots and airlines must consider aircraft weight, airport elevation, and outside temperature for safe departures, with shorter runways and higher elevations exacerbating the issue.

The Federal Aviation Administration does not set a universal maximum temperature for takeoff, stating that operating limits are specific to each aircraft model, its weight, and the airport's altitude. However, research indicates a growing problem: a 2017 study projected that by midcentury, some airports could face weight restrictions on 10% to 30% of departing flights during peak heat if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. More recent studies suggest European airports may need to shed the weight equivalent of 10 passengers per flight by 2065.

Cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas are experiencing a significant increase in days with extreme heat. Phoenix has averaged 43 days annually above 110 F since 2020, a surge compared to previous decades. Las Vegas has seen its average number of such days more than double since the mid-20th century, and Palm Springs has recorded an 83% increase in days above 110 F this decade compared to the 2000s.

Frequently asked questions

Hot air is less dense than cool air, meaning there are fewer air molecules. This reduces the lift generated by the wings and the thrust produced by the engines, making it harder for the aircraft to achieve takeoff speed.

Airlines may reduce the aircraft's weight by offloading cargo or passengers, carrying less fuel, or making an additional refueling stop. In some cases, flights may be delayed until temperatures drop.

No, airports at higher elevations or with shorter runways are more susceptible to takeoff restrictions in hot weather because they already operate in thinner air or have less distance to build speed.

Studies suggest that by midcentury, some airports could see weight restrictions on 10% to 30% of flights during the hottest parts of the day if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.

What Happens Next

01Airlines will continue to adjust flight plans based on real-time temperature and altitude data.
02Further research may refine climate models' predictions for future flight disruptions.
03Airports and airlines may explore infrastructure or operational adaptations to mitigate heat impacts.

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How It Developed

Extreme heat makes air thinner, hindering aircraft lift and engine thrust.
Airlines may reduce passenger or cargo loads, or carry less fuel, on hot days.
This issue is common in desert climates but also affects airports with higher elevations or shorter runways.
American Airlines offered compensation for voluntary seat relinquishments on a July 24 flight from Las Vegas due to 114 F temperatures.
Pilots and airlines calculate aircraft weight, airport elevation, and outside temperature for safe takeoff.
Shorter runways and higher elevations exacerbate takeoff challenges in hot weather.
The FAA does not set a maximum takeoff temperature, with limits varying by aircraft and airport.
A 2017 study projected weight restrictions on 10% to 30% of flights at some airports by midcentury due to rising greenhouse gas emissions.

Sources

T1
Rising temperatures could keep more flights from taking off on timeAP News

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