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LATAM Airlines lifts 2026 earnings outlook as fuel price pressure eases

Created at 4 Aug · 11:10 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

LATAM Airlines has raised its full-year core earnings forecast for 2026, citing an improved outlook for fuel prices. The airline now expects adjusted EBITDA between $4.1 billion and $4.4 billion, up from a previous forecast of $3.8 billion to $4.2 billion. This adjustment comes despite significant increases in fuel costs during the second quarter.

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Key Numbers

$4.1B-$4.4B2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast range
$3.8B-$4.2BPrevious 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast range
9%-10%Estimated capacity growth for this year
$150Updated oil price scenario for Q3 per barrel
$170Previous oil price scenario for Q3 per barrel
$130Updated oil price scenario for Q4 per barrel
$150Previous oil price scenario for Q4 per barrel
$90Pre-conflict oil price assumption per barrel
$125.2MSecond-quarter net profit
$241.6MSecond-quarter net profit a year earlier
$4.12BSecond-quarter revenue
27%Second-quarter revenue growth
$800M+Additional fuel expenses in a single quarter
14Up to Embraer E195-E2 jets to be introduced

Who's Involved

LATAM Airlines
Latin America's largest airline, raised earnings outlook
Ricardo Bottas
Chief Financial Officer of LATAM Airlines
Jerome Cadier
LATAM Brazil head
LATAM Airlines lifts 2026 earnings outlook as fuel price pressure eases

↳ Why This Matters

LATAM Airlines' upgraded earnings outlook signals a potential easing of inflationary pressures on the airline industry, particularly concerning fuel costs. This could indicate a more stable operating environment for carriers, potentially leading to improved profitability and capacity expansion, which may benefit travelers and cargo services.

Key facts

  • LATAM Airlines increased its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $4.1 billion-$4.4 billion.
  • The airline's improved outlook is attributed to easing fuel price pressures.
  • Second-quarter net profit fell to $125.2 million from $241.6 million a year ago.
  • Second-quarter revenue rose 27% to $4.12 billion.
  • Fuel costs nearly doubled in the second quarter, adding over $800 million in expenses.
  • LATAM will introduce up to 14 Embraer E195-E2 jets in Brazil starting late 2026.

LATAM Airlines has revised its full-year core earnings forecast upwards for 2026, citing a more favorable outlook for fuel prices. The airline now anticipates adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to be between $4.1 billion and $4.4 billion, an increase from its previous projection of $3.8 billion to $4.2 billion. This adjustment comes despite a significant rise in fuel costs during the second quarter.

Chief Financial Officer Ricardo Bottas stated that the improved fuel price scenario, with projections of around $150 per barrel for the third quarter and $130 for the fourth, justifies the upgrade. While these prices remain above pre-conflict levels of approximately $90 per barrel, the easing pressure from earlier highs linked to Middle East conflict has provided relief. Bottas acknowledged that the second half of the year will continue to present challenges due to geopolitical uncertainty but expressed confidence in the gradual recovery of the operating environment and the resilience of LATAM's business model.

In the second quarter, LATAM reported a net profit of $125.2 million, a decrease from $241.6 million in the same period last year. However, revenue climbed by 27% to $4.12 billion, driven primarily by passenger traffic, with cargo also contributing to the growth. The airline faced substantial fuel cost increases, with Bottas noting more than $800 million in additional fuel expenses within a single quarter.

Separately, LATAM announced the initial phase of its operations with Embraer's E195-E2 jets in Brazil. This initiative will involve introducing up to 14 aircraft between late 2026 and early 2027, servicing 42 routes. LATAM Brazil head Jerome Cadier indicated that these aircraft will support expansion in markets with strong corporate demand, such as agribusiness and oil-producing regions, while enhancing connectivity through the carrier's hubs. The company is already exploring approximately 18 potential destinations for further expansion in April 2027.

Frequently asked questions

LATAM Airlines now expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be between $4.1 billion and $4.4 billion.

The airline raised its outlook due to improving fuel price expectations and a resilient business model despite geopolitical disruptions.

The airline reported a net profit of $125.2 million, down from $241.6 million a year earlier, but revenue increased 27% to $4.12 billion.

LATAM will introduce up to 14 E195-E2 jets in Brazil between late 2026 and early 2027 to support expansion and strengthen connectivity.

What Happens Next

01LATAM will introduce up to 14 Embraer E195-E2 jets in Brazil between late 2026 and early 2027.
02The company is evaluating about 18 potential destinations for further expansion in April 2027.

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How It Developed

LATAM Airlines raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $4.1 billion-$4.4 billion.
The airline cited improved fuel price expectations as a key factor.
LATAM reported a second-quarter net profit of $125.2 million, down from $241.6 million a year earlier.
Revenue increased 27% to $4.12 billion in the second quarter.
Fuel costs nearly doubled year-over-year, resulting in over $800 million in additional expenses for the quarter.
LATAM announced the initial phase of its operations with Embraer E195-E2 jets in Brazil.

Sources

T1
LATAM Airlines lifts 2026 earnings outlook as fuel price pressure easesReuters

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