Key facts
- A new tool named CADI predicts agricultural productivity losses due to climate change by the end of the century.
- The platform uses a 10-kilometer grid and historical agricultural and climate data to isolate the impact of climate change.
- Globally, one in six croplands has already lost more than 10% of its potential productivity in the last two decades.
- While some high-latitude regions may see gains, tropical areas and southern Europe are projected to suffer the most significant declines.
- The tool aims to help identify areas needing support for adaptation to mitigate future impacts on rural incomes and food security.
A new interactive map, CADI (Climate-induced Agricultural Decline Index), has been developed by researchers at Spain's Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE) to predict how climate change will impact agricultural productivity by the end of the century. The platform uses a 10-kilometer grid to estimate potential farmland productivity losses, isolating the effect of climate by keeping crop types fixed at 2020 levels.
Observed data already indicates significant losses, with one in six croplands worldwide experiencing a decline of over 10% in potential productivity in the last two decades compared to the previous two. The impact is unevenly distributed, with tropical regions bearing the brunt, while some high-latitude areas see modest gains. In Europe, southern regions are projected to decline, while northern areas may improve.
Within Spain, the Cantabrian coast, Galicia, and the Pyrenees are expected to see productivity gains, contrasting with significant losses in the interior and central-eastern parts of the peninsula. The researchers highlight that countries with the lowest historical greenhouse gas emissions are disproportionately exposed to these agricultural declines.
The tool's creators emphasize its practical utility in identifying areas that will require support for adaptation, such as new crops or relocating production, to prevent falling yields from leading to reduced rural incomes and increased food insecurity.