Key facts
- El Niño is expected to develop with high intensity, potentially lasting until 2027.
- The phenomenon could lead to severe heatwaves and increased wildfire risk in Portugal.
- Drought conditions associated with El Niño pose risks to key crops like durum wheat, maize, rice, and soya.
- Portugal's direct climate impact from El Niño is predicted to be minimal, but indirect effects are a concern.
- Temperatures in Portugal are forecast to rise significantly, with inland areas potentially exceeding 40°C.
El Niño is virtually certain to recur this year, with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issuing warnings about its potential intensity and duration. The phenomenon, characterized by an abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to reach a 'very high' or 'very strong' level, potentially surpassing historical precedents.
The WMO estimates an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August, with its consequences likely to last until the end of the year with 90% probability. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has described El Niño as a 'climate alarm bell' that will further intensify global heating and cross borders with devastating speed.
While Portugal is geographically distant from the Pacific, climatologists like Carlos da Camara warn that indirect effects of El Niño, amplified by climate change, could be significant. He likens the phenomenon's influence to ripples from a stone in a pond, with direct impacts on Europe being small but indirect consequences, particularly for wildfires, being a major concern. The combination of a potential severe heatwave, increased biomass from fallen trees due to recent storms, and a wet spring could create an 'explosive cocktail'.
The IPMA forecasts very high temperatures from the weekend, with inland areas potentially exceeding 40°C, and some private models predicting up to 50°C. Da Camara emphasizes that while El Niño itself may not directly impact Europe as severely as other regions, its indirect influence on top of a degraded climate background could lead to much greater impacts, especially concerning large-scale wildfires during a critical time of year.