Key facts
- The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. has fallen below $4 for the first time since March.
- An agreement between the U.S. and Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz is cited as a factor in the price decrease.
- Gas prices are expected to continue falling unless major disruptions occur, such as hurricanes.
- A significant hurricane event in the Gulf of Mexico could lead to a temporary loss of crude oil production and refining capacity.
- Such disruptions could cause gasoline prices to jump by 25 to 30 cents per gallon.
- NOAA forecasts a potentially below-normal Atlantic hurricane season due to El Niño.
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. has fallen below $4 for the first time since March, according to AAA. This marks a significant decrease from earlier highs, with prices also coming down in states like California. Experts suggest prices could continue to fall, potentially reaching below $3 per gallon later this year, with diesel prices also expected to drop.
However, this downward trend is subject to potential disruptions, primarily from hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico. A high-impact hurricane event could lead to substantial losses in crude oil production and refining capacity, potentially causing a jump of 25 to 30 cents per gallon at the pump. Historical examples, such as Hurricane Ida in 2021, illustrate how such storms can spike prices.
Despite the potential for disruptions, forecasts from NOAA suggest a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, partly due to an anticipated strong El Niño. The first named storm, Tropical Storm Arthur, has already formed but is not expected to become a hurricane.