Key facts
- Airbus reduced its 20-year forecast for passenger aircraft demand by 1%.
- The planemaker cited the Iran war and trade tensions as factors impacting airline activity.
- The revised forecast projects 42,060 passenger jet deliveries from 2026 to 2045.
- Single-aisle jet deliveries are expected to be 33,920, with 8,140 wide-body jets.
- Airbus increased its passenger traffic growth forecast to 3.9% annually.
- India's domestic air traffic growth forecast was revised upward, while China's was lowered.
Airbus has revised down its 20-year industry-wide forecast for passenger aircraft demand by 1%, citing the impact of the Iran war and trade tensions on airline activity. The company still anticipates robust jet demand, particularly from Asia, which is expected to account for about half of all deliveries.
Antonio Da Costa, head of market analysis at Airbus, stated that the post-COVID recovery has effectively flattened. The lowered long-term growth outlook suggests a less buoyant aviation market ahead, with airlines trimming capacity growth plans due to higher oil prices stemming from the Iran conflict.
Airbus now expects 42,060 total passenger jet deliveries between 2026 and 2045, a 1% decrease from its previous forecast. This includes 33,920 single-aisle jets and 8,140 wide-body jets, both down 1%. The company noted that this volume is barely enough to accommodate announced production plans of Airbus and Boeing, while leaving room for China's competing C919, suggesting that recent widespread aircraft shortages may eventually ease.
The European company also revised its headline figure for passenger traffic growth upwards to 3.9% a year from 3.6%, though executives clarified this marks a downgrade from 4.1% on a like-for-like basis. Airbus did not provide data on freighter demand.
Despite the overall downward revision, Airbus noted that the Middle East is returning to normal traffic volumes amid a fragile ceasefire in the Iran conflict. India remains the fastest-growing air travel market, with Airbus revising its forecast for annual domestic traffic growth to 9.1% from 8.9%. However, the growth forecast for China's domestic market was lowered to 4.7% from 5.4%.
Airbus and Boeing acknowledge aviation's resilience to past shocks, but note that as air travel expands, the industry is maturing, leading to tapering long-term growth rates. Factors such as airlines flying jets longer, increasing passenger capacity, and potential AI-driven efficiency gains were also mentioned.