Key facts
- Donald Trump claimed his immigration policies led to a drop in car insurance premiums.
- Trump asserted that illegal immigration under the Biden administration caused a prior spike in car insurance premiums.
- Experts attribute the rise in car insurance premiums primarily to the COVID-19 pandemic, including increased risky driving and higher repair costs due to supply chain disruptions.
- Industry experts indicate that average auto insurance premiums are stabilizing and decreasing in many states as insurers become more financially stable.
- A study suggested a link between illegal immigration and higher premiums only in states where undocumented immigrants cannot obtain driver's licenses.
- Experts estimate that illegal immigration accounts for a minimal percentage of the increase in car insurance premiums.
President Donald Trump recently claimed that his administration's immigration policies have led to a decrease in car insurance premiums, attributing a prior increase to illegal immigration during the previous administration. Trump shared a graphic on Truth Social showing a sharp rise in premiums from 2021 to 2023, followed by a decline in 2024 and into 2026, stating that "ZERO ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION" and successful efforts to reverse the "Biden Invasion" caused this drop.
However, experts dispute this assertion, explaining that the primary factors behind the increase in car insurance premiums were related to the COVID-19 pandemic. These factors included riskier driving behaviors as people returned to the roads in larger numbers starting in 2022, and supply chain disruptions that increased the cost of auto parts and repairs. Experts note that as the auto insurance industry has become more financially stable, insurers have begun implementing rate decreases to remain competitive.
Michael Clemens, a professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University, described Trump's claim as "pure fiction" with no basis in any credible study. Mark Friedlander, a spokesperson for the Insurance Information Institute, confirmed that average auto insurance premiums are stabilizing and decreasing in many states, with some major insurers even paying dividends to policyholders.
A 2023 study in the Journal of Insurance Issues did find a correlation between higher numbers of individuals in the U.S. without legal status and an increase in uninsured drivers, which can raise premiums. However, this link was primarily observed in states where undocumented immigrants are not permitted to obtain driver's licenses, a prerequisite for insurance. Clemens further stated that this factor cannot account for the significant post-pandemic premium surge and estimated that illegal immigration could explain only about 0.07% of the increase.