Key facts
- Russia's parliamentary elections are set for September 20, the first since the war in Ukraine began.
- Frequent Ukrainian drone strikes, including on oil refineries near Moscow, are impacting the Kremlin's image.
- Internet access is regularly restricted, hindering online voting experiments.
- President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings have declined, signaling a potential shift in public support for the war.
- Experts anticipate that the United Russia party will still achieve a significant vote share, possibly through administrative measures and manipulation.
Russia's upcoming parliamentary elections on September 20 are taking place amidst a backdrop of increasing uncertainty, marked by the ongoing war in Ukraine, declining living standards, and frequent Ukrainian drone strikes. The Kremlin faces the challenge of ensuring high turnout for President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party, a ritualistic exercise aimed at reinforcing his legitimacy rather than genuine competition.
Recent Ukrainian attacks, including a significant drone strike on the Moscow Oil refinery on June 18, 2026, have caused reputational damage ahead of the vote. These strikes, along with regular internet shutdowns and restrictions on messaging platforms, complicate the electoral process and make online voting experiments less feasible. Experts suggest that the stability, a key element of Putin's electoral appeal, is eroding due to the war.
President Putin's approval ratings have reportedly been dropping since early 2026, signaling a potential shift in public sentiment regarding the war. This uncertainty, coupled with the state of the Russian economy, has led to a delay in strategy formulation for the elections. The return of war veterans from Ukraine is also a notable concern among the Russian populace, despite the Kremlin's intention to include military figures on electoral lists.
Historically, the Kremlin has guided regional officials to achieve specific voting outcomes. While the process of ensuring desired results is expected to continue, the elections remain important to Putin for demonstrating official support. In 2021, United Russia secured a majority in the 450-member parliament. However, experts note that the party's popularity has always been low, and the current circumstances may lead to an even lower electoral result than usual, though likely still above 50% through campaigning or manipulation.
Ultimately, the Kremlin aims to conduct elections that appear "boring" and normal, focusing on producing the required results rather than engaging with pressing issues important to Russians. The capacity of the system to yield desired outcomes remains the primary focus, even as the state struggles to present a new electoral offer to replace the eroding promise of stability.