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Explainer: How Reuters/Ipsos US Public Opinion Polls Are Conducted

Created at 7 Aug · 2:43 PM1 source
IN SHORT

Reuters/Ipsos polls use a representative sample of Americans aged 18 and over, polled online via its proprietary 'KnowledgePanel.' Data is weighted to reflect U.S. Census data and partisan self-identification. Polls of 4,000 respondents have a margin of error of about 2 percentage points.

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Key Numbers

18minimum age for poll respondents
4,000minimum respondents for large polls
2margin of error for large polls (percentage points)
24minimum polls conducted annually
1,000minimum respondents for smaller polls
3margin of error for smaller polls (percentage points)
75%example poll finding percentage
3%example margin of error (percentage points)
60%percentage of eligible voters who cast ballots in 2024
35U.S. states holding Senate elections

Who's Involved

Reuters/Ipsos
conducts polls of U.S. public opinion
Ipsos
uses its proprietary 'KnowledgePanel' for polling
U.S. Census Bureau
data used for weighting polls
Pew Research
study used for partisan self-identification benchmarking
University of Florida's Election Lab
source for 2024 voter turnout data

↳ Why This Matters

Understanding how public opinion polls are conducted is crucial for interpreting political news and election forecasts, as it clarifies the methodology, potential biases, and limitations of these surveys.

Key facts

  • Reuters/Ipsos polls U.S. public opinion on various political, business, and social topics.
  • The polls utilize Ipsos's 'KnowledgePanel,' a representative sample of Americans aged 18 and over, polled online.
  • Data is weighted to align with U.S. Census data and partisan self-identification.
  • Large polls of at least 4,000 respondents have a margin of error of approximately 2 percentage points.
  • Smaller polls, typically of 1,000 people, have a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.

Reuters/Ipsos conducts national U.S. public opinion polls on a range of political, business, and social subjects, including presidential approval ratings and congressional party preference. These polls aim to capture a snapshot of national sentiment at a specific moment by surveying a representative sample of the U.S. population.

The polls are conducted using Ipsos's 'KnowledgePanel,' which includes Americans aged 18 and over. Participants are selected via a postal address-based sampling method and polled online. Those without internet access are provided with free internet service and a laptop. The collected data is then weighted to reflect U.S. Census data across various demographics such as gender, age, race, ethnicity, education, household income, and region. Political composition is also considered, using partisan self-identification benchmarks or self-reported voting choices.

Reuters/Ipsos conducts large-scale polls of at least 4,000 respondents approximately six times a year, taking about a week to complete. These comprehensive polls typically have a margin of error of around 2 percentage points for the full sample. Throughout the year, at least 24 smaller polls, often focusing on presidential approval, are conducted with at least 1,000 people over a few days, carrying a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.

A margin of error quantifies the potential variation between poll findings and the results if the entire population were surveyed. Generic ballot polls specifically assess which party respondents wish to control Congress, though they do not account for the district-specific nature of U.S. elections, particularly the impact of gerrymandering on House races. The article also explains the distinction between registered voters and likely voters, noting that pollsters use models to identify likely voters based on factors like enthusiasm and past voting behavior, acknowledging these models can have predictive limitations.

Frequently asked questions

The 'KnowledgePanel' is Ipsos's proprietary system for sampling and polling a representative group of Americans online.

Data is weighted to reflect U.S. Census data on demographics and may also be weighted for political composition using partisan self-identification or voting choice.

The margin of error expresses the potential variation between a poll's findings and the results if the entire population were polled.

A generic ballot poll measures which party respondents want to control Congress, providing a national sentiment but not district-specific outcomes.

What Happens Next

01Reuters/Ipsos will continue to conduct regular polls on presidential approval and other topics.

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How It Developed

Reuters/Ipsos polls U.S. public opinion on political, business, and social topics.
Polls use Ipsos's 'KnowledgePanel,' a representative sample of Americans polled online.
Participants without internet access are provided with service and a laptop.
Data is weighted to reflect U.S. Census data and partisan self-identification.
Large polls of 4,000 respondents have a margin of error of about 2 percentage points.
Smaller polls of 1,000 respondents have a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.
Generic ballot polls gauge which party respondents want in charge of Congress.
Pollsters use models of likely voters, considering enthusiasm and past behavior.

Sources

T1
Explainer-How are Reuters/Ipsos US public opinion polls conducted?Reuters

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