Key facts
- Former chief of defence staff Adm Sir Tony Radakin stated defence spending plans must meet a "Moscow test" to counter Russian threats.
- Radakin warned that current UK defence commitments fall short of the necessary level.
- The Defence Investment Plan (Dip) is expected to be published this week.
- Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, has reportedly secured additional funding for the MoD.
- The UK is ranked second from the bottom in a NATO table for meeting capability requirements.
A former head of the UK armed forces has warned that defence spending plans must meet a "Moscow test" to effectively counter Russian threats, stating that current commitments fall short. Adm Sir Tony Radakin, who previously served as chief of the defence staff, told the BBC that if the upcoming Defence Investment Plan (Dip) is insufficient, the next prime minister will likely need to allocate more funds before the general election.
Dan Jarvis, the current defence secretary, is reported to have secured approximately £1 billion more than his predecessor, John Healey, following negotiations with the Treasury. Healey resigned earlier this month after failing to secure over £13.5 billion to address an £18 billion funding gap for the Dip, which outlines major capital programs for the next decade.
There are concerns within the Ministry of Defence that Andy Burnham, if he becomes prime minister, might revisit any spending agreement finalized in the final days of Keir Starmer's premiership. However, allies of Burnham suggest these concerns are unfounded, stating a preference for the funding row to be resolved and the Dip published promptly, while reserving the right to reopen the matter if necessary.
Radakin emphasized that the Dip must reflect increased defence spending due to a more dangerous global landscape, requiring the UK to be "stronger" in the 2030s. He stated that regardless of who is prime minister, additional funding should be welcomed, but if it's insufficient, the new leader may need to find the money. He elaborated that the "Moscow test" involves how the UK appears to Russia as a strong NATO member, a nuclear power, and a US ally, warning that falling short could damage relationships with allies, particularly America.
Starmer, who is scheduled to meet NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, has pledged to publish the long-delayed Dip before the NATO summit on July 7. Jarvis is understood to have secured at least £14 billion, with the Dip expected on Tuesday, though it remains unclear if this includes additional funds for the overall defence budget. NATO's long-term goal is for allies to reach 3.5% of GDP by 2035, but there are concerns that the proposed settlement might commit too much for after the next general election. A significant portion of the defence budget is allocated to the UK's nuclear deterrent, with nine nuclear projects costing over £10 billion and the new Dreadnought submarine alone costing £41 billion.
Radakin also noted that the UK is in an "unprecedented" and "unusual" position of ranking second from the bottom among NATO members in terms of meeting capability requirements, stressing the need to resolve this to ensure the safety of the UK and its allies.