Wall Street’s Best Known Bull Says It’s Almost Over, Here’s What the Options Think

A Wall Street bull says the selloff is in its final innings, but his own range still leaves room for a 6% drop before a 6% rally back to his year-end target. Same distance in either direction, and Jermal Chandler checks whether the options agree they're equally likely. They don't. With 51 days to the December expiration, his downside level carries roughly a 32% chance of finishing below and 68% of being touched, while his 8,000 target sits near 9%. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:01 The selloff's final innings 00:16 His target and his downside range 00:43 Same distance up or down 01:01 What the December options let us compare 01:15 Why timing changes everything 01:49 Another well-known bull 02:21 Starting with the straddle 03:04 Delta versus probability of touch 04:02 What the 8,000 target prices at 04:24 Why skew favours the downside #tastylive #mathcheck #jermalchandler #sp500 #pricetarget #optionsprobabilities #straddle #yearend #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.