The Holiday Edge Everyone Talks About Is Really One Outlier Year

A refreshingly honest look at a popular seasonal idea. Testing SPY strangles across the November 1 to January 15 window over five years, the holiday season averaged about 27% returns. But strip out one monster season and it falls to 12.8%, almost identical to the rest of the year. The calendar alone gives you nothing. What does matter is the condition you enter in: with an elevated IV rank, holiday trades returned about 2.9% on buying power against just 0.53% the rest of the year. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Revisiting the holiday premium study 00:40 Why redo it after this week 01:30 The setup, SPY strangles managed at 21 02:00 Splitting high and low IV rank 02:50 The returns year by year 03:30 One outlier changes everything 04:00 Same returns once you remove it 04:40 What the volume data shows 05:30 The high IV rank result 06:10 Where we sit right now #tastylive #research #sellingpremium #strangles #ivrank #seasonality #santarally #backtest #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.