Look at the Median Move, Not the Average

A viewer asks: if a stock keeps moving more than the options price in on earnings, why sell premium at all, and when do you flip to buying? Tom Preston's answer is counterintuitive. Don't make that leap. Buying premium means betting the market is wrong, and done systematically it's months of losing cycles waiting on one monster winner. He also flags the pattern-recognition trap: you remember the one that got killed and forget the ones that worked. His simpler fix: stop trading that name. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 If a stock keeps beating its expected move 00:30 Why earnings aren't his bread and butter 01:00 The pattern-recognition trap 01:40 You versus the market 02:20 Why buying premium fails systematically 03:00 The simpler fix, stop trading it 03:30 Look at the median, not the average 04:10 Chopping off the extremes 04:50 The premium-selling thesis in one line 05:30 When avoiding the trade is the answer #tastylive #confirmandsend #tompreston #expectedmove #earnings #sellingpremium #impliedvolatility #optionseducation #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.