Cem Karsan Explains Why All That News Didn’t Move the Market

Cem Karsan calls this the most extreme example yet of flows overpowering macro. Lay out everything that happened over two weeks and almost nobody would believe the index is sitting roughly 2% from its all-time high. His explanation is mechanical: options markets have grown so large they're no longer the tail wagging the dog, they are the dog, and the skew sitting in them has become the biggest carry trade in the world. Every day without a big move, dealers buy deltas and sell vol. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Cem Karsan joins after a long week 00:22 The most extreme example of flows 00:48 Watch the next month closely 01:15 List the news, guess the market 02:27 Options markets are the dog now 03:04 The biggest carry trade in the world 03:50 Why the loop is self-reinforcing 04:20 Why nobody wants to own vol 05:21 The one window this can break 07:47 Why December expiration matters #tastylive #cemkarsan #structuralflows #volatility #skew #opex #marketstructure #carrytrade #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.