Sterling Shorts Stay Large Even as UK Data Beats Forecasts

The GBP/USD outlook hinges on the U.S. midterms, a Bank of England decision and payrolls, with cable testing a key resistance zone. Fawad Razaqzada, StoneX Media Market Analyst, explains why the British pound is holding up against a firm U.S. dollar, and why speculative sterling shorts remain large even as UK data surprises to the upside. Betting markets give a clean sweep of the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections around a 70 to 75% probability, a result that could weigh on the dollar if it raises the risk of political gridlock. The U.S. dollar is holding up on stronger-than-expected data, from third-quarter GDP to the ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings and factory orders, while inflation remains well above target. The British pound draws support from upside UK data surprises, more credible fiscal policy, better relations with the EU and plenty of scope for short covering. With the Federal Reserve still leaning toward tighter policy, a particularly weak October nonfarm payrolls report may be needed to derail the dollar. GBP/USD is testing resistance where the 200-day moving average, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the upper line of a rising wedge pattern converge. 0:00 Cable's Triple Event Week 0:28 U.S. Midterms Test the Dollar 1:10 Resilient U.S. Data Backs USD 1:41 Jobs Report vs the Greenback 2:12 Sterling Gets UK Tailwinds 2:42 GBP/USD 200-Day Make or Break Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_fawad_razaqzada&utm_content=share Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #GBPUSD #StoneX #FawadRazaqzada #Forex --------- Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official Visit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts. Visit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social