Fed Hike Odds Doubled on Hot CPI and October Is a Coin Toss

Fed rate hike odds jumped from about 22% to 45% after a hot September CPI print, then eased to near 30% ahead of the October 28 meeting. Shriya Samarth, StoneX Head of Rates, EMEA, walks through three things to watch ahead of the Federal Reserve's October decision. September's Consumer Price Index came in hot, with gasoline leading the headline basket and jet fuel costs lifting airline fares inside core inflation. U.S. Treasuries are nonetheless catching a safe-haven bid alongside U.K. gilts and German bunds, as earnings season pressure and AI jitters weigh on equities. The two-year Treasury yield has fallen about ten basis points since the CPI print, even though the inflation picture has not changed. Discover Actionable Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence: https://shop.stonex.com/products/stonex-essential-bundle?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955323625572&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_shriya_samarth&utm_content=share 00:00 - Hot CPI Has an Airfare Problem 00:40 - Fed Hike Odds Hit a Coin Toss 01:23 - Treasuries Catch a Haven Bid 01:46 - Two-Year Yields Slide Anyway 02:10 - Relief Rally Meets Fiscal Risk Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #StoneX #ShriyaSamarth #FederalReserve #CPI #Treasuries --------- Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official Visit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts. Visit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social