Australian Unemployment Outruns the RBA and Cools Hike Bets

The Australian unemployment rate climbed to 4.72% as 39,000 jobs were lost, already above the Reserve Bank of Australia's year-end forecast. David Scutt, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, explains why the weakness runs deeper than one jobs report and what it means for RBA rate hike pricing and the Australian dollar. Trend employment growth has trailed labor force growth all year, underemployment has risen to 6.3% and the Australian version of the Sahm rule has reached 0.45 percentage points, near its 0.5 recession warning threshold. Australian dollar crosses such as AUD/NZD have tracked two-year yield spreads more closely than Australian yields alone. Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_david_scutt&utm_content=share 00:00 - Aussie Jobless Rate Beats RBA 01:27 - Hours Stall as Slack Piles Up 02:15 - Sahm Rule Nears Recession Line 02:41 - RBA Hike Odds Take a Big Hit 03:02 - AUD Tracks Spreads, Not Yields 03:29 - How Much Pain the RBA Accepts Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #RBA #StoneX #DavidScutt #AUD --------- Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official Visit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts. Visit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social