Brent Crude Sheds Iran Risk Premium but Hormuz Stays Tense

Brent crude oil prices posted their steepest weekly drop since the pandemic as fears of further U.S. and Iran escalation eased. Fiona Cincotta, StoneX Senior Market Analyst, breaks down what drove the sell-off, why shipping risk around the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated, and what the WTI crude chart shows after the slide. A Democrat-controlled Congress after the U.S. midterm elections, together with President Trump saying further strikes on Iran are unlikely while negotiations continue, lowered escalation expectations and unwound some of the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, so a reduced military threat is not yet the same as a genuine return to normal supply. JPMorgan estimates that global oil supply exceeded consumption in September and that the surplus widened in October, adding a fundamental source of pressure. For oil prices to fall significantly further, markets are watching for concrete diplomatic progress and a recovery in tanker movements through the strait. 00:00 - Oil's Worst Week Since COVID 00:29 - Midterms Deflate Oil Risk 01:26 - Hormuz Shipping Risk Lingers 02:03 - JPMorgan Flags an Oil Surplus 02:53 - WTI Chart Tests Key Support Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_fiona_cincotta&utm_content=share Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #CrudeOil #StoneX #FionaCincotta #OilPrices --------- Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official Visit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts. Visit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social