How to trade event risk without predicting it | Chris Weston & Steven Hatzakis
PepperstoneMarkets don't wait for you to be ready. In this episode, Pepperstone Head of Research Chris Weston and Steven Hatzakis look at how traders can approach scheduled event risk (central bank meetings, CPI, elections and earnings) without trying to predict the outcome. Recorded in October 2026, ahead of the US midterm elections on 3 November. The midterms are used here as an example of a known-date event that is hard to back-test, and the approach applies to any scheduled event. 📌 Topics covered 📈 Finding the most bullish and bearish markets, and using technicals as probabilities rather than predictions 🗳️ Why one-off events like the midterms can't be back-tested 📊 Reading implied volatility to see what the market is pricing in 📅 Fed meetings, CPI and other fixed-date events: sizing down and letting the market tell you 🐑 Client sentiment, herd behaviour and prediction markets ⚖️ Adjusting risk with position size versus stop loss 🌊 Volatility regimes, credit spreads and carry 💼 Earnings season: "priced to perfection", holding out, and using options before implied vol creeps up 🌐 The move towards 24/7 markets, and what it could mean for brokers and traders ⏱ Chapters 0:00 Intro: what event risk means for traders 1:04 Trade the trend: bullish and bearish assets plus technicals 2:26 Midterms case study: events you can't back-test 3:14 Reading implied volatility around scheduled events 4:26 Known dates, position sizing and letting the market decide 5:02 Client sentiment, herd behaviour and prediction markets 5:23 Two ways to adjust risk: position size or stop loss 6:22 Volatility regimes: VIX, credit spreads and carry 7:13 Earnings season: priced to perfection 8:59 Trading earnings with CFDs and options 10:24 Iran–US, oil and the move to 24/7 markets 11:37 What continuous trading means for brokers and retail traders 13:04 Wrap-up: react, don't prophesize 💬 What event risks are on your radar? Let us know in the comments. 0:00 Intro: what event risk means for traders 1:04 Trade the trend: bullish and bearish assets plus technicals 2:26 Midterms case study: events you can't back-test 3:14 Reading implied volatility around scheduled events 4:26 Known dates, position sizing and letting the market decide 5:02 Client sentiment, herd behaviour and prediction markets 5:23 Two ways to adjust risk: position size or stop loss 6:22 Volatility regimes: VIX, credit spreads and carry 7:13 Earnings season: priced to perfection 8:59 Trading earnings with CFDs and options 10:24 Iran–US, oil and the move to 24/7 markets 11:37 What continuous trading means for brokers and retail traders 13:04 Wrap-up: react, don't prophesize This content is not intended for a UK audience. Please visit our Pepperstone U.K. channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCk5HwBByE4VRj03__6iHgCA 🤝 Switch to Pepperstone. Sign up for a live trading account: https://bit.ly/Switch2Pepperstone 🐦Follow us on X/Twitter to keep up to date with market news, access expert commentary, analysis and more from our global market analysts: https://twitter.com/PepperstoneFX 👉 Subscribe to Chris Weston's Daily Fix newsletter: https://cloud.go.pepperstone.com/join-daily-fix The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted. #fx #trading #CFDs