Nicole Kagan: Empowering Kalshi Through Research

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT On this week's podcast, Danny Moses speaks with Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi, about her path from Bridgewater to Oxford and then to Kalshi to help build the contract-writing and research functions. Kagan explains how Kalshi sources market ideas internally, from partners, and from users, then evaluates whether a contract is objective, economically justified, and resolvable, often reusing pre-certified templates or submitting new rules for CFTC self-certification. She discusses how Kalshi reviews underperforming markets, prioritizes price discovery, and can keep low-volume markets live. They cover Kalshi’s prediction markets conference, institutional hedging examples, and Fed research finding Kalshi markets more accurate on inflation and Fed funds, including an FOMC pricing divergence versus CME futures. Moses highlights Kalshi’s research links and AI/compute work, then shares his weekly Kalshi picks focused on the Bank of Japan and USD/JPY. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. FOLLOW US On The Tape on X: https://x.com/OnTheTapePod Danny Moses on X: https://x.com/dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.