What If Wall Street Gets the Midterms Wrong? - IBKR Podcast Ep. 437

What if Wall Street is betting on the wrong election outcome? With the 2026 midterms fast approaching, Democrats are eyeing a congressional comeback, President Trump’s economic agenda hangs in the balance, and prediction markets are making some bold calls. But how much can investors really trust the odds? Interactive Brokers’ Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick joins IBKR Podcast Producer Vrushabh Doshi to break down the stakes, revisit past election surprises, and explore what a political shake-up in Washington could mean for markets. Could the biggest surprise come after the votes are counted? Stay tuned to find out. Show Notes: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/podcasts/ibkr-podcasts/what-if-wall-street-gets-the-midterms-wrong/ Campus Home:  https://www.ibkr.com/campus/ Traders’ Insight:  https://www.ibkr.com/campus/news Traders’ Academy: https://www.ibkr.com/campus/courses Cents of Security: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/ca... IBKR Quant:    https://www.ibkr.com/campus/quant Cents of Security: https://www.ibkr.com/campus/category/... IBKR Podcasts:  https://www.ibkr.com/campus/podcasts IBKR Webinars:  https://www.ibkr.com/campus/webinars IBKR API:     https://www.ibkr.com/campus/api Student Trading Lab: https://www.ibkr.com/campus/stl Open an account at Interactive Brokers: https://ndcdyn.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=podYTAcc&url=%2FUniversal%2FApplication&utm_ibsource=podYTAcc Disclosure: Interactive Brokers The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Disclosure: Event Contracts Risk Futures, event contracts, and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy, visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page. Disclosure: Event Contracts Availability Event Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. ForecastEx Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents. Disclosure: Prediction Market Sentiment Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome. Disclosure: CFTC Regulation 1.71 This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Disclosure: ForecastEx Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.