Key facts
- The 2026 FIFA World Cup is projected to become the largest betting event in history.
- Bernstein forecasts up to $10 billion in consumer sports betting and prediction market trading volume.
- Robinhood is launching Rothera, a CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange.
- Coinbase is offering World Cup contracts through a partnership with Kalshi.
- Gambling reform advocates have voiced concerns regarding addiction and financial distress.
- The CFTC intends to propose new regulations for online betting platforms.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is poised to become the largest betting event in history, with investment firm Bernstein projecting up to $10 billion in consumer sports betting and prediction market trading volume. The firm views the tournament as a "watershed moment" that could significantly accelerate growth for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms.
Bernstein analysts noted that the expanded 48-team format offers roughly 60% more bettable inventory than previous tournaments, leading to projections of over $3 billion in incremental handle and as much as $10 billion in broader consumer volume uplift. This surge is expected despite the tournament falling during a traditionally slower period for online sports betting.
Companies like Robinhood and Coinbase are leveraging the event to boost their prediction market businesses. Robinhood is commercially launching Rothera, its CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange, while Coinbase is offering World Cup contracts through its partnership with Kalshi. DraftKings reported a substantial increase in trading volumes in May, with annualized consumer volume rising 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion and total volume traded up 34% to $3.1 billion.
Bernstein views prediction markets as a new layer for sports engagement monetization rather than a threat to existing sportsbooks. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen rapid scaling, particularly in states like California, Texas, Georgia, and Florida.
The tournament opener at Mexico City Stadium in Mexico City, Mexico, kicked off at 1pm local time on June 11, 2026, with cohosts Mexico entertaining South Africa. The opening ceremony celebrated Mexican culture through Indigenous performers, contemporary folklore, and traditional art, featuring performances by artists from the official FIFA World Cup album, including Alejandro Fernandez, Belinda, Danny Ocean, J Balvin, Lila Downs, Los Angeles Azules, Mana, Tyla, Shakira, and Burna Boy. Shakira is also set to co-headline the halftime show of the inaugural FIFA World Cup final on July 19, alongside Madonna and K-pop band BTS. Authorities declared June 11 a public holiday in Mexico City, with schools closed and employers encouraged to allow remote work. Access to the stadium area was restricted to ticket holders, accredited media, and authorized personnel. FIFA, the global governing body of football, expects to earn a record $13 billion from the 48-team, 104-match tournament.
Gambling reform advocates, such as Les Bernal of Stop Predatory Gambling and Matt Zarb-Cousin, have expressed concerns about increased addiction and financial distress due to the heightened betting activity. Data from the National Centre for Social Research indicates that the top 10% of UK spenders account for 79% of gambling company winnings, with an average annual wager of £5,639. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to propose new rules for online betting platforms.